Fair Odds
fair_odds = 1 / true_probability
The market's decimal price after removing the vig.
Resolved Alerts
Track Record.
The outcomes behind every +EV alert OddsWatch has fired — sport, sportsbook, market, edge detected, and whether it hit. Seeded with 8 worked examples until real resolved alerts accumulate.
Hit Rate
71.4%
5W · 2L · 1P (8 resolved)
ROI
+82.1%
+$148.09 / $180.46 staked
Total Tracked
8
alerts tracked
Biggest Win
+$40.25
FanDuel · NBA · Luka Doncic over 32.5 pts
How to read these results
Read the full methodologyEdge %
(Book Odds / Fair Odds - 1) * 100
The value identified versus the market. A positive value indicates +EV.
Kelly Stake
bankroll * (Edge % / 100) / (Book Odds - 1) / 4
Quarter-Kelly shown for a $1,000 bankroll. The free bet row is an exception with no cash stake.
Outcome
WON · LOST · PUSH
A resolved result becomes WON, LOST, or PUSH, and the P&L on the same row reflects the stake's outcome. PUSH results do not count in the Hit Rate denominator; free bets are excluded from the ROI denominator because no cash is at risk.
Seeded examples until real resolved alerts accumulate. Stakes = quarter-Kelly at $1,000 bankroll, same formula as /methodology. Free bet row excluded from ROI denominator (no cash at risk).
Scroll horizontally to view all result columns.
| Sport | Sportsbook | Market | Fair Odds | Book Odds | Edge % | Kelly Stake | Outcome | P&L at $1k bankroll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | DraftKings | Bills -3.5 @ Patriots | 3.70 | 4.20 | +13.5% | $10.55 | WON | +$33.76 |
| NBA | FanDuel | Luka Doncic over 32.5 pts | 3.10 | 3.60 | +16.1% | $15.48 | WON | +$40.25 |
| NHL | BetMGM | Avalanche -1.5 puck line vs Wild | 1.91 | — | +7.0% | $100 (free bet) | LOST | — |
| NFL | Caesars | Chiefs -6.5 @ Raiders | 1.72 | 1.95 | +13.4% | $35.26 | WON | +$33.50 |
| NBA | DraftKings | LeBron James over 28.5 pts | 1.85 | 2.10 | +13.5% | $30.68 | LOST | −$30.68 |
| MLB | FanDuel | Dodgers -1.5 run line | 2.20 | 2.55 | +15.9% | $25.65 | WON | +$39.76 |
| NHL | Bet365 | Oilers ML | 1.67 | 1.88 | +12.6% | $35.80 | WON | +$31.50 |
| NFL | BetMGM | Steelers +7 @ Ravens | 2.05 | 2.35 | +14.6% | $27.04 | PUSH | — |
For educational and informational purposes only. Not a sportsbook. Not a betting service. Always bet responsibly. 21+ in eligible states.